OPEC announces 1.5 million barrel per day cut, crude falls 3.50.
Let’s hear it for the artists formerly known as a cartel.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Economic Meltdown
Today as I drove through town, nearly half the stores were closed. The streets teemed with the unemployed; it was if 1/3 of the city was just walking around, 100,000 with nothing to do but loiter. Scarier still, people looked hungry. Like all they wanted was to work, and all they needed was a job, any job at all, so they could get food for their kids. Truth is, there was barely enough food on the store shelves, thanks to the drought in the Midwest, and people with jobs could barely afford it. I couldn't believe how bad the economy had gotten.
Of course, none of this happened. Well, not since the Great Depression was at its worst in the 1903’s. Since then, we haven’t had a really scary economic crisis. In lieu of actual suffering, now we make up our crises so we can over-react and buy the swill the media sells. We are a cowardly lot, and one that loves the drama.
The economy is in a recession. That’s a fact. A financial panic? Absolutely. An “economic meltdown?” No, not quite. Actually, not even close, though I ripped that tag directly from a headline. Unemployment is up to 7%, headed for 8. It will probably even hit 9. Of course, no one mentions that during the economic boom of the 90’s, most of Europe still had unemployment from 10-11%. That’s how bad unemployment is now, only 20% lower than Europe’s in the good times. So let it be written, American capitalism is a failure!
Actually it’s not. True, the stock market is down 40%. As Ronald Reagan said, "Never confuse the stock market with the economy." Though he and I have some different ideas about economic policies, he was right; they aren’t the same. The market moves in minutes and hours, and even in seconds. The economy moves in months and years, and even in decades. So with the huge drops in the market, you might expect some huge fundamental change in retails sales the month that preceded the crash. You’d be right, and today everyone “oohed” and “ahhed” at the 1.2% drop in September. That’s right, just over a 1% drop from the biggest consumer spending September in history and people think the end has arrived. For every 100 big screens that would have sold, one didn’t. For every 1,000 shirts that would have been sold, only 988 were bought. Oh, Lordy, kill me now.
We are not in the midst of a plunge either to mercantilism or to communism. We’re okay. Something around 90% of the country made the same amount of money this month that they did last month. Heavens to Betsy. Americans are still rich. Americans are still fat. Americans still run the world. Any one who says differently is selling something. More specifically, selling a newspaper.
Of course, none of this happened. Well, not since the Great Depression was at its worst in the 1903’s. Since then, we haven’t had a really scary economic crisis. In lieu of actual suffering, now we make up our crises so we can over-react and buy the swill the media sells. We are a cowardly lot, and one that loves the drama.
The economy is in a recession. That’s a fact. A financial panic? Absolutely. An “economic meltdown?” No, not quite. Actually, not even close, though I ripped that tag directly from a headline. Unemployment is up to 7%, headed for 8. It will probably even hit 9. Of course, no one mentions that during the economic boom of the 90’s, most of Europe still had unemployment from 10-11%. That’s how bad unemployment is now, only 20% lower than Europe’s in the good times. So let it be written, American capitalism is a failure!
Actually it’s not. True, the stock market is down 40%. As Ronald Reagan said, "Never confuse the stock market with the economy." Though he and I have some different ideas about economic policies, he was right; they aren’t the same. The market moves in minutes and hours, and even in seconds. The economy moves in months and years, and even in decades. So with the huge drops in the market, you might expect some huge fundamental change in retails sales the month that preceded the crash. You’d be right, and today everyone “oohed” and “ahhed” at the 1.2% drop in September. That’s right, just over a 1% drop from the biggest consumer spending September in history and people think the end has arrived. For every 100 big screens that would have sold, one didn’t. For every 1,000 shirts that would have been sold, only 988 were bought. Oh, Lordy, kill me now.
We are not in the midst of a plunge either to mercantilism or to communism. We’re okay. Something around 90% of the country made the same amount of money this month that they did last month. Heavens to Betsy. Americans are still rich. Americans are still fat. Americans still run the world. Any one who says differently is selling something. More specifically, selling a newspaper.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
A tree falls…
The old axiom asks “if a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there to hear it, does it make a noise?” This is not so much an honest question as a general pondering of reality and how we perceive it. As a rationalist I have little faith in theories of perceived reality. Of course the tree makes a noise when it falls. This is a matter of the laws of physics, not the presence of humans.
We humans are interesting in our concepts of our own importance. Other creatures don’t think (for all we know) in terms of philosophical ideas concerning the ‘big questions.’ They think “maybe we should get away from that lion.” Only we have the arrogance to dare to question reality in terms of us defining it. Our reality defines us, not the other way around. I do not have wings, regardless of what I think about my arms. We believe we can transcend reality simply by refusing to accept it.
Then again, perhaps our arrogance does have some basis in reality. We bend our planet to the point of breaking to make ourselves more comfortable. While humans certainly aren’t the only creatures to change their environment to better suit themselves, the scale of said changes makes any comparisons blatant fallacies. A bird picking up fallen twigs to make a home is simply incomparable to our cutting down acres and acres of forests to build suburbs. Towers built by termites are like sandcastles, not skyscrapers.
Even with all of our amazing accomplishments, we overestimate our impact. Earth will be around long after the bricks of our civilization are dust carried by the wind. No being has after impacted our planet like we have, so efficiently tapping resources from thousands of feet below the surface. But we are not forever. Nothing physical can be. And when the last human remnants are odd shaped mounds, when whatever kills off all of us and all other complex life on the planet has run its course, life will begin again, even if at the most basic level.
We humans are interesting in our concepts of our own importance. Other creatures don’t think (for all we know) in terms of philosophical ideas concerning the ‘big questions.’ They think “maybe we should get away from that lion.” Only we have the arrogance to dare to question reality in terms of us defining it. Our reality defines us, not the other way around. I do not have wings, regardless of what I think about my arms. We believe we can transcend reality simply by refusing to accept it.
Then again, perhaps our arrogance does have some basis in reality. We bend our planet to the point of breaking to make ourselves more comfortable. While humans certainly aren’t the only creatures to change their environment to better suit themselves, the scale of said changes makes any comparisons blatant fallacies. A bird picking up fallen twigs to make a home is simply incomparable to our cutting down acres and acres of forests to build suburbs. Towers built by termites are like sandcastles, not skyscrapers.
Even with all of our amazing accomplishments, we overestimate our impact. Earth will be around long after the bricks of our civilization are dust carried by the wind. No being has after impacted our planet like we have, so efficiently tapping resources from thousands of feet below the surface. But we are not forever. Nothing physical can be. And when the last human remnants are odd shaped mounds, when whatever kills off all of us and all other complex life on the planet has run its course, life will begin again, even if at the most basic level.
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